Selected publications by Granger Morgan

To request a copy of a paper, please email gm5d [at] andrew.cmu.edu.

Refereed Journal Publications

• M. Granger Morgan, Barbara R. Barkovich and Alan K. Meier, "The Social Costs of Producing Electric Power from Coal: A First Order Calculation", Proceedings of the IEEE, 61, 1431-1442, 1973.

• M. Granger Morgan, Samuel C. Morris, Alan K. Meier and Debra L. Shenk, "A Probabilistic Methodology for Estimating Air Pollution Health Effects from Coal-Fired Power Plants", Energy Systems and Policy, 2, 287-310, 1978.

• M. Granger Morgan, Samuel C. Morris, William R. Rish and Alan K. Meier, "Sulfur Control in Coal-Fired Power Plants: A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis", Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, 28, 993-997, 1978.

• William R. Rish and M. Granger Morgan, "Regulating Possible Health Effects from AC Transmission Line Electromagnetic Fields", Proceedings of the IEEE, 67, 1416-1427, 1979.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Probing the Question of Technology-Induced Risk", IEEE Spectrum, 18, (11), 58-64, 1981 November.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Choosing and Managing Technology-Induced Risk", IEEE Spectrum, 18(12), 53-60, 1981 December.

• EPP Graduate Research Methods Class, "On Judging the Frequency of Lethal Events: A Replication", Risk Analysis, 3, 11-16, 1983 March.

• M. Granger Morgan, Samuel C. Morris, Max Henrion, Deborah A.L. Amaral and William R. Rish, "Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis: A Sulfur Air Pollution Example," Risk Analysis, 4, 201-216, 1984 September.

• Max Henrion and M. Granger Morgan, "A Computer Aid for Risk and Other Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, 5, 195-208, 1985 September.

• M. Granger Morgan, Samuel C. Morris, Max Henrion and Deborah A. L. Amaral, "Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment: A case study involving sulfur transport and health effects", Environmental Science and Technology, 19, 662-667, 1985 August.

• M. Granger Morgan, Paul Slovic, Indira Nair, Dan Geisler, Donald MacGregor, Baruch Fischhoff, David Lincoln and H. Keith Florig, "Power line Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields: A Pilot Study of Risk Perception", Risk Analysis, 5, 139-150, 1985 June.

• M. Granger Morgan, H. Keith Florig, David Lincoln and Indira Nair, "Power-line Fields and Human Health", IEEE Spectrum, 22, 62-68, 1985 February.

• Max Henrion, M. Granger Morgan, Indira Nair, and Charles Wiecha, "Evaluating an Information System for Policy Modelling and Uncertainty Analysis", Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 37, 319-330, 1986 September.

• H. Keith Florig, James F. Hoburg, and M. Granger Morgan, "Electric Field Exposure from Electric Blankets", IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. PWRD-2(2), 527-536, 1987 April.

• Harald Ibrekk and M. Granger Morgan, "Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People", Risk Analysis, 7(4), 519-529, 1987.

• M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion and Charles Wiecha, "DEMOS: A computer aid for engineering-economic policy modeling and uncertainty analysis", Large Scale Systems, 383, 1987.

• H. Keith Florig and M. Granger Morgan, "Measurements of Housing Density Along Transmission Lines", Bioelectromagnetics, 9, 87-93, 1988.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Quantitative Risk Assessment: Low frequency electromagnetic fields as an example", Statistical Science, 3(3), 314-319, 1988.

• Gordon Hester, M. Granger Morgan, Indira Nair and Keith Florig, "Small Group Studies of Regulatory Decision Making for Power-Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields", Risk Analysis, 10, 213-228, 1990.

• Indira Nair and M. Granger Morgan, Three-Part Special Report: "Part 1: Biological Effects", 23-27; M. Granger Morgan and Indira Nair, "Part 3: Managing the Risks", 32-35, IEEE Spectrum, 27, 1990 August.

• Emilie Roth, M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Lester B. Lave and Ann Bostrom, "What Do We Know About Making Risk Comparisons?", Risk Analysis, 10(3), 375-392, 1990.

• M. Granger Morgan, H. Keith Florig, Indira Nair, Concepcion Cortes, Kevin Marsh and Karen Pavlosky, "Lay Understanding of Power-Frequency Fields", Bioelectromagnetics, 11, 313-335, 1990.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Probing the Question of Technology-Induced Risk", IEEE Spectrum, 18(11), 58-64, 1981 November and "Choosing and Managing Technology-Induced Risk", IEEE Spectrum, 18(12), 53-60, 1981 December. Reprinted in Readings in Risk, T. Glickman and M. Gough (eds.), Resources for the Future, Johns Hopkins Press, 5-29, 1990.

• Gregory W. Fischer, M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Indira Nair and Lester B. Lave, "What Risks are People Concerned About?", Risk Analysis, 11(2), 303-314, June 1991.

• M. Granger Morgan and Indira Nair, "Alternative Functional Relationships Between ELF Field Exposure and Possible Health Effects: Report of an expert workshop", Bioelectromagnetics, 13, 335-350, 1992.

• M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Ann Bostrom, Lester Lave and Cynthia J. Atman, "Communicating Risk to the Public", Environmental Science & Technology, 26(11), 2048-2056, November 1992.

• Ann Bostrom, Baruch Fischhoff and M. Granger Morgan, "Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes: A methodology and an application to radon", Journal of Social Issues , 48(4), 85-100, 1992.

• Hadi Dowlatabadi and M. Granger Morgan, "A Model Framework for Integrated Studies of the Climate Problem", Energy Policy, 21(3), 209-221, March 1993.

• Michael Maharik, Baruch Fischhoff and M. Granger Morgan, "Risk Knowledge and Risk Attitudes Regarding Nuclear Energy Sources in Space," Risk Analysis, 13, 345-353, 1993.

• Ann Bostrom, M. Granger Morgan, Jack Adams and Indira Nair, "Preferences for Exposure Control of Power-Frequency Fields Among Lay Opinion Leaders," Risk: Health, Safety & Environment, 5(4), 295-318, Fall 1994.

• Cynthia J. Atman, Ann Bostrom, Baruch Fischhoff and M. Granger Morgan, "Designing Risk Communications: Completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes, Part I," Risk Analysis, 14(5), 779-788, October 1994. Also reprinted in Simon Gerrard, R. Kerry Turner, and Ian Bateman (eds.), Environmental Risk Planning and Management, Chapter 18, Edward Elgar Publishers, 251-260, 2001.

• Ann Bostrom, Cynthia J. Atman, Baruch Fischhoff and M. Granger Morgan, "Evaluating Risk Communications: Completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes, Part II," Risk Analysis, 14(5),789-798, October 1994. Also reprinted in Simon Gerrard, R. Kerry Turner, and Ian Bateman (eds.), Environmental Risk Planning and Management, Chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishers, 261-270, 2001.

• Donald G. MacGregor, Paul Slovic and M. Granger Morgan, "Perception of Risks from Electromagnetic Fields: A Psychometric Evaluation of a Risk-Communication Approach," Risk Analysis, 14(5), 815-828, October 1994.

• Ann Bostrom, M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff and Daniel Read, "What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Part 1: Mental models," Risk Analysis, 14(6), 959-970, 1994.

• Daniel Read, Ann Bostrom, M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff and Tom Smuts, "What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Part 2: Survey studies of educated laypeople," Risk Analysis, 14(6), 971-982, 1994.

• M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts," Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), 468-476, October 1995.

• M. Granger Morgan, Indira Nair, and Jun Zhang, "A Method for Assessing Alternative Effects Functions That Uses Simulation With EMDEX Data," Bioelectromagnetics, 16, 172-177, 1995.

• John G. Adams, Jun Zhang, M. Granger Morgan, and Indira Nair, "A Method for Evaluating Transmission Line Magnetic Field Mitigation Strategies That Incorporates Biological Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, 15(3), 313-318, 1995.

• M. Granger Morgan and Hadi Dowlatabadi, "Learning from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change," Climatic Change, 34, 337-368, 1996.

• Jun Zhang, Indira Nair, and M. Granger Morgan, “Effects Function Simulation of Residential Appliance Field Exposures,” Bioelectromagnetics, 18, pp. 116-124, 1997.

• M. Granger Morgan and Daniel Read, “The Efficacy of Different Methods for Informing the Public About the Range Dependency of Magnetic Fields from High Voltage Power Lines,” Risk Analysis, 18(5), 603-610, October 1998.

• M. Granger Morgan, Milind Kandlikar, James Risbey, and Hadi Dowlatabadi, Editorial - “Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change,”Climatic Change, 41, 271-281, 1999.

• Elizabeth A. Casman, M. Granger Morgan and Hadi Dowlatabadi, “Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models,” Risk Analysis, 19(1), 33-42, 1999.

• M. Granger Morgan. H. Keith Florig, Michael DeKay, Paul Fischbeck, Kara Morgan, Karen Jenni, and Baruch Fischhoff, "Categorizing Risks for Risk Ranking," Risk Analysis, 20(1), 49-58, 2000.

• M. Granger Morgan, Louis F. Pitelka and Elena Shevliakova, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems," Climatic Change, 49, 279-307, 2001.

• Elizabeth Casman, Baruch Fischhoff, Mitchell Small, Hadi Dowlatabadi, Joan Rose and M. Granger Morgan, "Climate Change and Cryptosporidiosis: A qualitative analysis," Climatic Change, 50, 219-249, 2001.

• H. Keith Florig, M. Granger Morgan, Kara M. Morgan, Karen E. Jenni, Baruch Fischhoff, Paul S. Fischbeck and Michael L. DeKay, "A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (I): Overview and test bed development," Risk Analysis, 21(5), 913-921, 2001.

• Kara M. Morgan, Michael L. DeKay, Paul S. Fischbeck, M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, "A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (II): Evaluation of validity and agreement among risk managers," Risk Analysis, 21(5), 923-937, 2001.

• Michael L. DeKay, Mitchell J. Small, Paul S. Fischbeck, R. Scott Farrow, Alison Cullen, Joseph B. Kadane, Lester B. Lave, M. Granger Morgan, Kazuhisa Takemura, "Risk-based Decision Analysis in Support of Precuationary Policies," Journal of RiskResearch, 5(4), 391-417, 2002.

Books

• M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, with Mitchell Small, Uncertainty: A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis, 332pp., Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990. (Paperback edition 1992. Latest printing (with revised Chapter 10) 1998.)

• M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Ann Bostrom and Cynthia Atman, Risk Communication: A mental models approach, 351pp., Cambridge University Press, New York, 2002.

Contributions to Books

• Co-Authored with Gordon Hester, Indira Nair and Keith Florig, Chapter 18, "Small Group Studies of Regulatory Decision Making for Power-Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields", 415-457, in Communicating Risks to the Public, R.E. Kasperson and P.M. Stallen (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Power-Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields: Issues of risk management and risk communication," 297-319, in Biological Effects of Electric and Magnetic Fields: Clinical applications and therapeutic effects, Volume 2, D.O. Carpenter and S. Ayapetyan (eds.), Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, CA, 1994.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Quantitative Risk Ranking: More promise than Hattis and Goble suggest," in Worst Things First? The debate over risk-based national environmental priorities, A.M. Finkel and D. Golding (eds.), Johns Hopkins University Press, 368pp, 1995.

• M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Lester Lave, and Paul Fischbeck, "A Proposal for Ranking Risk within Federal Agencies," in Comparing Environmental Risks: Tools for setting government priorities, J. Clarence Davies (ed.), pp. 111-148, Resources for the Future, 1996.

• Michael L. DeKay, H. Keith Florig, Paul S. Fischbeck, M. Granger Morgan, Kara M. Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, and Karen E. Jenni, "The Use of Public Risk Ranking in Regulatory Development," in Improving Regulation: Cases in Environment, Health, and Safety, Paul S. Fischbeck and R. Scott Farrow (eds.), Resources for the Future Press, 461pp., 2001.

Unrefereed Policy and Opinion Pieces

• M. Granger Morgan, "Risk Research: When should we say "enough"?", Editorial Page, Science, 232, 917, 1986 May 23.

• M. Granger Morgan, H. Keith Florig, Indira Nair and Gordon L. Hester, "Power Frequency Fields: The regulatory dilemma", Issues in Science and Technology, 81-91, 1987 Summer.

• M. Granger Morgan, H. Keith Florig, Indira Nair, and Gordon L. Hester, "Controlling Exposure to Transmission Line Electromagnetic Fields: A Regulatory Approach that is compatible with the available science", Public Utilities Fortnightly, 49-58, 1988 March.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Electric and Magnetic Fields from 60 Hz Electric Power: Possible Health Risks?", Chance: New Directions for Statistics Computing, 2(4), 12-20 and 37, Fall 1989.

• M. Granger Morgan and Lester Lave, Guest Editorial "Ethical Considerations in Risk Communication Practice and Research", Risk Analysis, 10(3), 355-358, 1990.

• Edward S. Rubin, Lester B. Lave and M. Granger Morgan, "Keeping Climate Research Relevant", Issues in Science and Technology, VIII(2), 47-55, Winter 1991-92.

• Lester B. Lave, Hadi Dowlatabadi, Gregory J. McRae, M. Granger Morgan and Edward Rubin, "Uncertainties of Climate Change", Nature, 355, 1992 January 16.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Prudent Avoidance", Public Utilities Fortnightly, 26-29, 1992 March 15.

• M. Granger Morgan, "What Would it Take to Revitalize Nuclear Power in the United States?", Environment, 35(2), 7-9 and 30-32, March 1993.

• Hadi Dowlatabadi and M. Granger Morgan, Policy Forum, "Integrated Assessment of Climate Change", Science, 259, 1813 and 1932, 1993 March 26.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Risk Analysis and Management", Scientific American, 32-41, July 1993.

• M. Granger Morgan, “Uncertainty Analysis in Risk Assessment,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 4(1), 25-39, February 1998.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Risk Management Should Be About Efficiency and Equity," Viewpoint, Environmental Science & Technology, pp. 32A-34A, January 1, 2000.

• M. Granger Morgan, "Managing Carbon from the Bottom Up," Science, 289, p.2285, September 29, 2000.

• M. Granger Morgan, "The Neglected Art of Bounding Analysis," Viewpoint, Environmental Science & Technology, 35, pp. 162A-164A, April 1, 2001.

Brochures for the General Public

• Electric and Magnetic Fields from 60 Hz Electric Power: What do we know about possible health risks, 45pp, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon, 1989.

• A two-part brochure for use with field measurement programs: Part 1: Measuring Power Frequency Fields?, 25pp, Part 2: What Can We Conclude From Measurements of Power-Frequency Fields?, 45pp, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon, 1993.

• Global Warming and Climate Change, 9pp, a hierarchically organized brochure with three supporting brochures Details Booklet Part 1: More on "what is climate change?," 9pp, Details Booklet Part 2: More on "if climate changes what might happen?," 9pp, and Details Booklet Part 3: More on "What can be done about climate change?," 14pp, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 1994.

• Fields from Electric Power, 9pp, a hierarchically organized brochure with three supporting brochures Details Booklet Part 1: More on "What are fields?,"13pp, Details Booklet Part 2: More on "Do 60 Hz fields pose health risks?," 13pp, Details Booklet Part 3: More on "What can and should be done about 60 Hz fields?," 13pp, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 1995.

Conference Proceedings and Technical Reports

• M. Granger Morgan, "Power-Frequency Fields: Issues in risk perception, communication, assessment, and management," in Proceedings of the 1992 World Congress for Electricity and Magnetism in Biology and Medicine, June 15, 1992, Orlando, Florida, 1993.

• M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Lester Lave, Paul Fischbeck with Stephanie Byram, Karen Jenni, Garrick Louis, Sandra McBride, Laura Painton, Stuart Siegel and Ned Welch, "A Procedure for Risk Ranking for Federal Risk Management Agencies," manuscript prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy, February 1994.