Selected publications: Experts' risk perception

To request a copy of a paper, please email Rosa Stipanovic at rl1y [at] andrew.cmu.edu.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischbeck, P.S., Stiber, N.A., & Fischhoff, B. (2002). What number is “fifty-fifty”?: Distributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities. Risk Analysis, 22, 725-735.

Dombroski, M., Fischhoff, B., & Fischbeck, P. (2006). Predicting emergency evacuation and sheltering behavior: A structured analytical approach. Risk Analysis, 26.

Fischhoff, B. (2006). Behaviorally realistic risk analysis. In R.J. Daniels, R.F. Kettle, & H. Kunreuther (ed.), Risk and responsibility. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities. Harvard Business Review, 8-11.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, Winter). As uncomplicated as complexity allows. President’s column. RISK Newsletter, 2.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, Summer). Risk analysis: By the people. President’s column, RISK Newsletter, 2.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, Fall). Risk analysis: For the people. President’s column. RISK Newsletter, 2.

Fischhoff, B. (2005, Spring). Risk analysis: Of the people. President’s column, RISK Newsletter, 2.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Conflicts of interest in policy analysis: Compliant pawns in their game? In D. Moore, D. Cain, G. Loewenstein, & M. Bazerman (Eds.), Conflicts of interest (pp. 263-269). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B. (2001). Learning from experience. In J.S. Armstrong (Ed.), Handbook of forecasting principles (pp. 484-494). Norwell, MA: Kluwer.

Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B. (1991). Nuclear decisions: Cognitive limits to the thinkable. In P. E. Tetlock, J. L. Husbands, R. Jervis, P. C. Stern, and C. Tilly (Eds.), Behavior, society, and nuclear war, (pp 110-192). New York: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 13, 448-461.

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Risk: A guide to controversy. Appendix to National Research Council. Improving risk communications (pp. 211-319). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Fischhoff, B. (1987). Do we want a better theory of deterrence? Journal of Social Issues, 43, 73-77.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear power. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Strategic policy preferences. Journal of Social Issues, 39, 133-160.

Fischhoff, B. (1980). Clinical decision analysis. Operations Research, 28, 28-43.

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenance. Policy Sciences, 8, 177-202.

Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (in press). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review, 90, 239-260.

Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 33, 133-151.

Fischhoff, B. & Cox, L. A., Jr. (1985). Conceptual framework for regulatory benefit assessment. In J. D. Bentkover, V. T. Covello and J. Mumpower (Eds. ), Benefits assessment: The state of the art (pp. 51-84). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: D. Reidel.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1983). The "public" vs. the "experts": Perceived vs. actual disagreement about the risks of nuclear power. In V. Covello G. Flamm, J. Rodericks and R. Tardiff (Eds.), Analysis of actual vs. perceived risks (pp. 235-249). New York: Plenum.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1982). Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk. American Statistician, 36, 240-255.

Gregory, R., Fischhoff, B., Butte, G., & Thorne, S. (in press). A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for energy deregulation. Energy Policy.

Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798.

Murphy, A. H., Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Winkler, R. L. (1980). Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 61, 695-701.

Riley, D.M., Small, M.J., & Fischhoff, B. (2000). Modeling methylene chloride exposure-reduction options for home paint-stripper users. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, 10, 240-250.

Rode, D., Fischhoff, B., & Fischbeck, P. (2000). Catastrophic risk and securities design. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 1, 111-126.

Svenson, O. & Fischhoff, B. (1985). Levels of environmental decisions. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 5, 55-68.