Selected publications: Methodological issues

(See also Probability elicitation and Value elicitation)

To request a copy of a paper, please email Rosa Stipanovic at rl1y [at]

Atman, C.J., Bostrom, A., Fischhoff, B. & Morgan, M.G.. (1994). Designing risk communications: Completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes, Part 1. Risk Analysis, 14, 779-788.

Bostrom, A., Atman, C.J., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (1994). Evaluating risk communications: Completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes. Part 2. Risk Analysis, 14, 789-798.

Bostrom, A., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, M.G. (1992). Characterizing mental models of hazardous processes: A methodology and an application to radon. Journal of Social Issues, 48, 85-100.

Bostrom, A., Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B. & Read, D. (1994). What do people know about global climate change? Part 1. Mental models. Risk Analysis, 14, 959-970.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J.S., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Adolescents’ thinking about the risks and benefits of sexual behavior. In: Lovett, M.C. & Shah, P. (Eds.) Thinking with data. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum, pp. 421-439.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J.S., Fischhoff, B., & Palmgren, C. (2007). Development and evaluation of an HIV/AIDS knowledge measure for adolescents focusing on misunderstood concepts. HIV/AIDS Prevention in Children and Youth, 8, 35-57.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischbeck, P.S., Stiber, N.A., & Fischhoff, B. (2002). What number is “fifty-fifty”?: Distributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities. Risk Analysis, 22, 725-735.

Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2000). The effect of question format on beliefs about AIDS. AIDS Education and Prevention, 12, 187-198.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Halpern-Felsher, B., & Millstein, S. (2000). Expressing epistemic uncertainty: It's a fifty-fifty chance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 81, 115-131.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Can teens predict significant life events? Journal of Adolescent Health, 41, 208-210.

Fischer, G.W., Morgan, G.M., Fischhoff, B., Nair, I., & Lave, L.B. (1991). What risks are people concerned about? Risk Analysis, 11, 303-314.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). The early history of hindsight research. Social Cognition. 25, 2-5.

Fischhoff, B. (in press). Constructing preferences from labile values. In P. Slovic & S. Lichtenstein (Eds), Construction of preferences. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B. (in press). Heuristics and biases in application. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin & D.Kahneman (Eds.), The psychology of judgment: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision research strategies. Health Psychology, 21, S1-S8.

Fischhoff, B. (2005). Development of and in behavioral decision research. In J.E. Jacobs & P. Kaczynski (Eds). The development of judgment and decision making in children and adults (pp. 335-346). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.

Fischhoff, B. (2001). Decision making. Encyclopedia of psychology. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association and Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B. (2001). Learning from experience. In J.S. Armstrong (Ed.), Handbook of forecasting principles (pp. 484-494). Norwell, MA: Kluwer.

Fischhoff, B. (2000). Informed consent in eliciting environmental values. Environmental Science and Technology, 38, 1439-1444.

Fischhoff, B. (2000). Scientific management of science? Policy Sciences, 33, 73-87.

Fischhoff, B. (1997). What do psychologists want? Contingent valuation as a special case of asking questions. In R. J. Kopp, W.W. Pommerehne, and N. Schwarz (Eds.), Determining the value of nonmarketed goods (pp. 189-217). New York: Plenum.

Fischhoff, B. (1996). Public values in risk research. Annals of the American Academy of Political & Social Science, 545, 75-84.

Fischhoff, B . (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232-248.

Fischhoff, B. (1995). Ranking risks. Risk: Health Safety & Environment, 6, 189-200.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Fischhoff, B. (1993). Transaction analysis: A framework and an application to insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7, 53-69.

Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault. American Psychologist, 47, 577-588.

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 13, 448-461.

Fischhoff, B. (1988). Specifying value measurements. In B. Driver, G. Peterson, and R. Gregory (Eds.), Evaluating amenity resources (pp. 107-116). New York: Venture.

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823-843.

Fischhoff, B. (1983). Acceptable risk: The case of nuclear power. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2, 559-575.

Fischhoff, B. (1977). Cost-benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenance. Policy Sciences, 8, 177-202.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review, 90, 239-260.

Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., & Quadrel, M.J. (2002). Risk perception and communication. In R. Detels, J. McEwen, R. Beaglehole & H. Tanaka (Eds.), Oxford textbook of public health. (pp. 1105-1123). London: Oxford University Press.

Fischhoff, B., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1999). Fifty/fifty = 50? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 149-163.

Fischhoff, B. & Cox, L. A., Jr. (1985). Conceptual framework for regulatory benefit assessment. In J. D. Bentkover, V. T. Covello and J. Mumpower (Eds. ), Benefits assessment: The state of the art (pp. 51-84). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: D. Reidel.

Fischhoff, B., Downs, J., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventions. Applied and Preventive Psychology, 7, 77-94.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1988). Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 147-184.

Fischhoff, B., Hohenemser, C., Kasperson, R. E. & Kates, R. W. (1978). Can hazard management be improved? Environment, 20, 16-20 & 32-37.

Fischhoff, B. & Furby, L. (1986). A review and critique of Tolley, Randall et al. "Establishing and valuing the effects of improved visibility in the Eastern United States". ERI Technical Report 86-8. Eugene, OR: Eugene Research Institute.

Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Derby, S. L. & Keeney, R. L. (1981). Acceptable risk. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B. & MacGregor, D. (1983). Judged lethality: How much people seem to know depends upon how they are asked. Risk Analysis, 3, 229-236.

Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M.J., Kamlet, M., Loewenstein, G., Dawes, R., Fischbeck, P., Klepper, S., Leland, J., & Stroh, P. (1993). Embedding effects: Stimulus representation and response modes. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 6, 211-234.

Fischhoff, B., Riley, D., Kovacs, D., & Small, M. (1998). What information belongs in a warning? A mental models approach. Psychology and Marketing, 15, 663-686.

Fischhoff, B., & Small, M. (2000). Human behavior in industrial ecology modeling. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 3, 4-7.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1980). Knowing what you want: Measuring labile values. In T. Wallsten (Ed.), Cognitive processes in choice and decision behavior (pp. 117-141). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Fischhoff, B., Welch, N., & Frederick, S. (1999). Construal processes in preference elicitation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 139-164.

Fischhoff, B., & Willis, H. (2002). Measures of adolescent vulnerability. Journal of Adolescent Health.

Florig, H.K., Morgan, M.G., Morgan, K.M., Jenni, K.E., Fischhoff, B., Fischbeck, P.S., & DeKay, M. (2001). A deliberative method for ranking risks (1): Overview and test bed development. Risk Analysis, 21, 913-922.

Kovacs, D.C., Small, M.J., Davidson, C., & Fischhoff, B. (1997). Household cleaning products and exposure potential. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemology, 7, 505-520.
Long, J., & Fischhoff, B. (2000). Setting risk priorities: A formal model. Risk Analysis, 20, 339-351.

Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., Lave, L., & Atman, C.J. (1992). Communicating risk to the public. Environmental Science and Technology, 26, 2048-2056.

Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B. (2005). Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 1-27.

Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B. (2003). Decision-making competence and risk behavior. In D. Romer (Ed.), Reducing adolescent risk: Toward an integrated approach (pp. 99-105). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Riley, D.M., Fischhoff, B., Small, M., & Fischbeck, P. (2001). Evaluating the effectiveness of risk-reduction strategies for consumer chemical products. Risk Analysis, 21, 357-369.

Riley, D.M., Small, M.J., & Fischhoff, B. (2000). Modeling methylene chloride exposure-reduction options for home paint-stripper users. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, 10, 240-250.

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S. (1982). Why study risk perceptions? Risk Analysis, 2, 83-93.

Svenson, O. & Fischhoff, B. (1985). Levels of environmental decisions. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 5, 55-68.

Welch, N., & Fischhoff, B. (2001). The social context of contingent valuation transactions. Society and Natural Resources, 14, 1-13.

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000). A new scale for assessing perceptions of chance: A validation study. Medical Decision Making, 20, 298-307.