Selected publications: Probability elicitation

To request a copy of a paper, please email Rosa Stipanovic at rl1y [at]

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischbeck, P.S., Stiber, N.A., & Fischhoff, B. (2002). What number is “fifty-fifty”?: Distributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities. Risk Analysis, 22, 725-735.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Halpern-Felsher, B., & Millstein, S. (2000). Expressing epistemic uncertainty: It's a fifty-fifty chance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 81, 115-131.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A.M., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Can teens predict significant life events? Journal of Adolescent Health, 41, 208-210.

Fischhoff, B. (2007). The early history of hindsight research. Social Cognition. 25, 2-5.

Fischhoff, B. (2006, May). Modeling: Visualizing your vulnerabilities. Harvard Business Review, 8-11.

Fischhoff, B. (in press). Heuristics and biases in application. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin & D.Kahneman (Eds.), The psychology of judgment: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 13, 448-461.

Fischhoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review, 90, 239-260.

Fischhoff, B., & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1999). Fifty/fifty = 50? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 149-163.

Fischhoff, B. & MacGregor, D. (1983). Judged lethality: How much people seem to know depends upon how they are asked. Risk Analysis, 3, 229-236.

Fischhoff, B. & MacGregor, D. (1982). Subjective confidence in forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 155-172.

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C., Dawes, R.M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189-205.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of assessed failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330-344.

Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798.

Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B, Layman, M. & Combs, B. (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578.

Linville, P.W., Fischer, G.W., & Fischhoff, B. (1993). AIDS risk perceptions and decision biases. In J.B. Pryor & G.D. Reeder (Eds.), The social psychology of HIV infection (pp. 5-38). Hillsdale, NJ Erlbaum.

Murphy, A. H., Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Winkler, R. L. (1980). Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 61, 695-701.

Quadrel, M.J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W. (1993). Adolescent (in)vulnerability. American Psychologist, 48, 102-116.

Shaklee, H. & Fischhoff, B. (1990). The psychology of contraceptive surprises: Judging the cumulative risk of contraceptive failure. Journal of Applied Psychology, 20, 385-403.

Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Accident probabilities and seat-belt usage: A psychological perspective. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 10, 281-285. Reprinted in P.Slovic (Ed.), The perception of risk. London: Earthscan, 2001.

Woloshin, S., Schwartz, L.M., Byram, S., Fischhoff, B., & Welch, H.G. (2000). A new scale for assessing perceptions of chance: A validation study. Medical Decision Making, 20, 298-307.