People: Faculty

Robyn Dawes

Emeritus Professor of Psychology

Ph.D.: University of Michigan


Centers: Center for Risk Perception and Communication

208 Porter Hall
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Office: PH 219C
Phone: 412.268.2055
Fax: 412.268.6938
email: rd1b@andrew.cmu.edu

Center for Behavioral Decision Research

View list of all SDS faculty

IN THE NEWS:
Recently named a fellow of the American Statistical Association for creative research on statistics and rational decision-making, contributions to the application of cognitive psychology to survey research, and promotion of careful statistical thinking in psychology and behavioral research.



Research Interests
My current research spans five areas: intuitive expertise, human cooperation, retrospective memory, methodology and United States AIDS policy.
  1. Intuitive expertise: People claim to have intuitive expertise in a wide variety of areas, often basing this claim on "experience." I investigate to what degree and under what circumstances these claims are valid or invalid. Invalidity often stems from the systematic biases of retrospective memory, which I also investigate.
  2. Human cooperation: We observe more human cooperation than can be readily inferred from a game theoretic analysis that assumes people are = selfish. I have long been dubious that we can "rescue" this analysis by extending it to include "side payments" (e.g. reciprocal altruism, concern with reputation, utility for acting in accord with a socially instilled conscience, benefit to those genetically related).
  3. Irrationality which I study as an empirical - as well as introspective - basis.
  4. Methodology: I'm also interested in the philosophy of "soft" psychology and allied social sciences, and I have published papers questioning a number of standard assumptions about how well work is done in these areas. I ask questions such as: "Does the standard statistical population/sample inference model accurately describe how we generalize?"
  5. AIDS Policy--Whatever skills I've developed, I believe that some should be devoted to the problem of education and behavior change to stem the HIV epidemic.
My introspective evaluation of my own effort (limited expertise claimed) is: 67 percent thought and being aware of what others have done, 10 percent data collection, 10 percent data analysis and 13 percent luck. Data are collected to answer specific questions--framed as conflicting hypotheses--in an "obvious" manner, or to be analyzed to "tease out" relationships. In order to perceive order in a context of chaos, it is usually necessary to know where to look, although still saving some regard for the 13 percent luck.

Selected Publications
Dawes, R.M. (2001) Everyday Irrationality: How Pseudoscientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Fail Think Rationally. Westview Press.

Dawes, R.M. (1988) and (in press 2001). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. San Diego, CA: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich. (Recipient of the William James Award of Division #1 of the American Psychological Association '90). Second edition Hastie, R. & Dawes, R.M., Sage Press.

Swets, J.A., Dawes, R.M., and Monahan, J. (2000). Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions. Psychological Sciences in the Public Interest (a supplement to Psychological Science), 1, No. 1.

Swets, J.A., Dawes, R.M., and Monahan, J. (2000). Better decisions through science, Scientific American, 283, 4, 70-75.

Dawes, R.M., and messick, D.M. (2000). Social dilemmas. In = International Journal of Psychology. Special Issue on Diplomacy and Pschology, 35, 111-116.

Dawes, R.M. (1998). Behavioral decision making, judgment, and inference. In D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.), The Handbook of Social Psychology. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill, 589-597.

Dawes, R.M., and Mulford, M. (1996. The false consensus effect and overconfidence: Flaws in judgment, or flaws in how we study judgment? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, no. 3, 201-211.

Dawes, R.M. (1994). House of Cards: Psychology and Psychotherapy Built on Myth. New York: The Free Press. Printed in paperback, September 1996.

Dawes, R.M. (1991). Social dilemmas, economic self-interest and evolutionary theory. In D.R. Brown & J.E.K. Smith (Eds.), Recent Research in Psychology: Frontiers of Mathematical Psychology: Essays in Honor of Clyde Coombs. New York: Springer-Verlag, 53-79.